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Prediction of Ground Displacement of Reservoir Ancient Landslide with Intermittent Reactivation

Miao Haibo;Yin Kunlong;Zhang Xiuwang;School of Civil Engineering and Architecture,Anhui University of Science and Technology;Faculty of Engineering,China University of Geosciences;  
The intermittent reactivation of reservoir ancient landslides brings great difficulties to decision makers when they make judgements about the deformation phase of the landslides and their future development.Landslide boundary conditions like fluctuation of reservoir water level and precipitation are responsible for the variation of groundwater level when they are united.On the basis of rigid limit equilibrium theory and Mohr-Coulomb strength criterion,the model was derived to predict the displacement rate of reactivation and ground displacement which describes the intermittent reactivation process of reservoir ancient landslides.In the case study of Sanzhouxi landslide in the Three Gorges Reservoir,the groundwater level was firstly simulated from January 1,2009 to December 31,2009,and then the displacement rate of reactivation was calculated with the model above and the predicted ground displacement was also calculated plus with the initial monitoring value.The results of the comparison between measured and predicted displacements show a good simulation of the measured behaviour,indicating that the prediction model established above is reasonable and applicable.In addition,the key factors which affect the accuracy of the prediction model include two aspects:the accurate real-time groundwater level and the model parameters according to actual condition of the landslide.
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